To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for the tenth round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the final abilities from last season and the results to round 9.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
Melbourne Vixens	NSW Swifts	18%
West Coast Fever	Sunshine Coast Lightning	72%
Adelaide Thunderbirds	Queensland Firebirds	22%
Collingwood Magpies	GIANTS Netball	45%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) in round 9 (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.

The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 11.14. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning	Home Goals	Away Goals	MAPE
Sunshine Coast Lightning	Melbourne Vixens	49%	52	55	8.1
NSW Swifts	West Coast Fever	46%	66	65	7.7
Adelaide Thunderbirds	Collingwood Magpies	59%	62	54	9.2
Queensland Firebirds	GIANTS Netball	38%	63	52	14.7