To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for the ninth round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the final abilities from last season and the results to round 8.

Home Away Chance of home team winning
Sunshine Coast Lightning Melbourne Vixens 49%
NSW Swifts West Coast Fever 46%
Adelaide Thunderbirds Collingwood Magpies 59%
Queensland Firebirds GIANTS Netball 38%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

"game1"

"game2"

"game3"

"game4"

Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) in round 8 (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.

"prediction-comparison"

The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 11.29. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home Away Chance of home team winning Home Goals Away Goals MAPE
NSW Swifts Queensland Firebirds 50% 64 52 13.1
GIANTS Netball Adelaide Thunderbirds 59% 57 41 14.4
Sunshine Coast Lightning Collingwood Magpies 72% 67 65 8.4
West Coast Fever Melbourne Vixens 85% NA NA NA