To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for this round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the results from the previous rounds this season.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
Melbourne Vixens	GIANTS Netball	60%
NSW Swifts	Collingwood Magpies	44%
Queensland Firebirds	West Coast Fever	33%
Adelaide Thunderbirds	Sunshine Coast Lightning	88%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) from the previous round (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.

The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 10.61. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning	Home Goals	Away Goals	MAPE
NSW Swifts	Melbourne Vixens	33%	48	53	4.5
Sunshine Coast Lightning	Queensland Firebirds	34%	54	82	24.6
Collingwood Magpies	West Coast Fever	30%	53	70	13.3
Adelaide Thunderbirds	GIANTS Netball	69%	56	43	11.3