Here are my model predictions for round 11! You can check out my wrap-up of round 10 here. Here’s a summary of what my model is predicting as the outcomes of the matches for round 11:

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
Sunshine Coast Lightning	Magpies Netball	99%
NSW Swifts	West Coast Fever	17%
Queensland Firebirds	GIANTS Netball	26%
Melbourne Vixens	Adelaide Thunderbirds	100%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

How are the predictions made?

Check out the introductory post, and this post explaining how predictions for the new 2018 season are formed.