UPDATE: 2018-07-14: I had an incorrect reference in my data setup for this round, so the predictions have changed. You can check out the history on github.

Here are my model predictions for round 10! You can check out my wrap-up of round 9 here. Here’s a summary of what my model is predicting as the outcomes of the matches for round 10:

Home Away Chance of home team winning
Queensland Firebirds Melbourne Vixens 26%
West Coast Fever Sunshine Coast Lightning 82%
Adelaide Thunderbirds Magpies Netball 9%
GIANTS Netball NSW Swifts 95%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.





How are the predictions made?

Check out the introductory post, and this post explaining how predictions for the new 2018 season are formed.