Here are my model predictions for round 3! You can check out my wrap-up of round 2 here. Here’s a summary of what my model is predicting as the outcomes of the matches for round 3:

Home Away Chance of home team winning
Melbourne Vixens Queensland Firebirds 36%
Sunshine Coast Lightning West Coast Fever 44%
Magpies Netball Adelaide Thunderbirds 81%
NSW Swifts GIANTS Netball 21%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.





How are the predictions made?

Check out the introductory post, and this post explaining how predictions for the new 2018 season are formed.