The first round of the 2018 Super Netball season is just about on us! Here’s a summary of what my model is predicting as the outcomes in the first round.

Home Away Chance of home team winning
Melbourne Vixens Magpies Netball 51%
Adelaide Thunderbirds West Coast Fever 69%
GIANTS Netball Sunshine Coast Lightning 25%
NSW Swifts Queensland Firebirds 16%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.





How are the predictions made?

Check out the introductory post, and this post explaining how predictions for the new 2018 season are formed.